March 2023 | Fixed Income Markets Review

Market Updates April 13, 2023

Fixed income markets rallied in March amid the liquidity crisis facing US banks and the subsequent emergency measures from the Fed and Treasury Department. These measures sought to avert potential contagion risks and included the creation of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) by the Fed to provide a liquidity backstop for US banks. In conjunction with the BTFP, US institutions took advantage of the central bank’s discount window to meet liquidity needs. Usage of these lending facilities surged as discount window borrowing through March 15th reached an all-time high of $152 billion – surpassing the prior highs set amidst the Great Financial Crisis. In this same period, borrowing from the BTFP totaled over $11 billion. Through the end of March, discount window borrowing fell to $88 billion, although lending from the BTFP swelled to $64 billion. Combined borrowing by banking institutions from the two facilities totaled $152 billion to end the quarter.

Bond markets reacted to these developments during the month, while yields fell sharply following the announcement of the emergency measures. Concerns around financial contagion drove a flight to quality rally in US Treasuries as investors witnessed bull steepening along the yield curve. The 2-year note declined by 73 bps — the sharpest downward move since January 2008 — closing March at 4.06%. The yield has moved dramatically lower since January, when the 2-year note topped 5%. Amid these developments, the yield curve remains inverted as expectations for muted economic growth and declining inflation drive the inversion. The pronounced swings in yields have exacerbated interest rate volatility, as measured by the MOVE Index, with the index levels reaching historic highs. The distress in the banking sector has sparked debate around how long the Fed can keep monetary policy restrictive while simultaneously supporting liquidity. The March FOMC statement noted that while the banking system is financially sound and resilient, the recent stress is likely to weigh on economic activity and hiring. Additionally, the recent banking turmoil has shifted the implied fed futures curve and market expectations of future monetary policy. As shown below, the implied fed funds future curve shifted downward throughout March as market participants now expect lower rates. The fed funds futures market is currently pricing in only a 48% probability of a 25 bps increase at the next FOMC meeting, while the market favors holding the target range at 4.75 – 5.00%. Looking ahead, the futures market deems an 88% probability that the FOMC will cut rates by the September meeting. However, fixed income markets have strayed from the Fed's dot plot guidance regarding likely policy decisions, as Chairman Powell has explicitly stated that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in 2023.

Notes & Disclosures

Index Returns – all shown in US dollars

All returns shown trailing 3/31/2023 for the period indicated. “YTD” refers to the total return as of prior-year end, while the other returns are annualized. 3-month and annualized returns are shown for:

The Barclay’s US Aggregate Index, a broad-based unmanaged bond index that is generally considered to be representative of the performance of the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.
The ICE BofAML Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Index is a subset of The BofA Merrill Lynch World Sovereign Bond Index excluding all securities with a country of risk that is a member of the FX G10, all Western European countries, and territories of the U.S. and Western European countries. The FX G10 includes all Euro members, the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden.
The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index, which measures global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers.
The S&P Global Developed Sovereign Bond index includes local-currency denominated debt publicly issued by governments in their domestic markets.
S&P Eurozone Developed Sovereign Bond - seeks to measure the performance of Eurozone government bonds.
The S&P Pan-Europe Developed Sovereign Bond Index is a comprehensive, market-value-weighted index designed to track the performance of local currency-denominated securities publicly issued by Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the U.K. and developed countries in the Eurozone for their domestic markets.
ICE BofAML Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond - tracks the performance of US dollar (USD) and Euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued within the major domestic and Eurobond markets.
The Bloomberg Barclay’s US Corporate Bond Index (AA), which measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers.
The Bloomberg Barclay’s US Corporate High Yield Index, which covers the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market.
Bloomberg Barclay’s Global Aggregate Securitized- US Mortgage-Backed Securities, which is a component of the Bloomberg Barclay’s US Aggregate Index and measures investment grade mortgage backed pass-through securities of GNMA, FNMA, and FHLMC.
Bloomberg Barclay’s Global Aggregate Securitized- US Asset-Backed Securities, which is a component of the Bloomberg Barclay’s US Aggregate Index and includes the pass-throughs, bullets, and controlled amortization structures of only the senior class of ABS issues.
The Blomberg Barclay’s US Floating Rate Notes (<5 Yr) Index, measures the performance of U.S dollar-dominated, investment grade floating rate notes with maturities less than 5 years.
The Bloomberg Barclay’s Municipal Bond Index, which measures investment grade, tax-exempt bonds with a maturity of at least one year.
The S&P/ LSTA Leveraged Loan Index is designed to reflect the performance of the largest facilities in the leveraged loan market.

An index is a portfolio of specific securities, the performance of which is often used as a benchmark in judging the relative performance to certain asset classes. Index performance used throughout is intended to illustrate historical market trends and performance. Indexes are managed and do not incur investment management fees. An investor is unable to invest in an index. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. All investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal, and potential liquidity of the investment in a falling market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Key Rates

Key Rates are shown for US Treasuries and London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), the interest rate at which banks offer to lend funds (wholesale money) to one another in the international interbank market. LIBOR is a key benchmark rate that reflects how much it costs banks to borrow from each other. “Current” refers to the percentage rate as of 2/28/2023, while the rates of change are stated in basis points.

Credit Spreads

Credit Spreads shown comprise the Option-Adjusted Spread of the indices indicated, versus the US 10-Year Treasury Yield. “Current” refers to the spread as of 2/28/2023, while the rates of change are stated in basis points.

Key Indicators

Key Indicators correspond to various macro-economic and rate-related data points that we consider impactful to fixed income markets.

2s10s (bps)/ 10 Yr vs 2 Yr Treasury Spread, which measures the difference between yields on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities and 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities.
West Texas Intermediate, which is an oil benchmark and the underlying asset in the New York Mercantile Exchange’s oil futures contract.
Core Consumer Price Index, which measures the consumer price index excluding food and energy prices. Shown as of the prior month-end.
Breakeven Inflation: 5 Yr %/ bps, which uses a moving 30-day average of the 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities and 5-Year Treasury Inflation–Indexed Constant Maturity Securities to derive expected inflation.
Breakeven Inflation: 10 Yr %/ bps, which uses a moving 30-day average of the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities and 10-Year Treasury Inflation–Indexed Constant Maturity Securities to derive expected inflation.

General Disclosure

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