August 2021 | Fixed Income Markets - Wilbanks Smith & Thomas

Market Updates September 13, 2021

Fixed income returns were modestly negative for August as long-term yields closed higher on a monthly basis for the first time since March. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate finished the month down 19 bps, bringing the year-to-date total return to -0.69%.

During the month, market participants responded to yet another above-average inflation print, with the year-over-year change in the CPI Index for July coming in at 5.4%. However, inflation breakevens fell compared to the previous month, with the five-year and ten-year breakevens decreasing approximately 12 bps and 7 bps, respectively. As a reminder, the breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the nominal yield on a government bond and the real yield on an inflation-linked government bond of the same maturity. This difference is interpreted as the expected annualized inflation over the life of the two bonds. Furthermore, the breakeven curve continues to be inverted. For example, the difference between the one-year and thirty-year breakeven rate is 38 bps. While the thirty-year breakeven is still well above two percent, this may be a sign that investors believe the abnormal inflationary pressures currently experienced will be alleviated as time passes.

Market participants also digested news from the Federal Reserve — who released the minutes from their July meeting later in the month emphasizing the economy has continued to gain momentum, but the recovery would still depend on the path of the virus and increasing vaccination rates. However, if compared to previous statements, one might interpret the most recent release as a bit hawkish. Since December, the Fed has been purchasing at least $80 billion and $40 billion per month of U.S. Treasuries and agency MBS, respectively. The minutes now show the Fed began to discuss when they should end their quantitative easing program. However, Jerome Powell has emphasized that any plans to taper asset purchases should not be viewed as a signal that the Fed will be raising interest rates. While some Fed governors have publicly stated they are in favor of tapering assets in the fourth quarter of 2021 or first quarter of 2022, futures markets are not pricing in an actual rate hike until at least the fourth quarter of 2022.

Shifts in US Treasury Yield Curve

Notes & Disclosures

Index Returns – all shown in US dollars

All returns shown trailing 8/31/2021 for the period indicated. “YTD” refers to the total return as of prior-year end, while the other returns are annualized. 3-month and annualized returns are shown for:

The Barclay’s US Aggregate Index, a broad-based unmanaged bond index that is generally considered to be representative of the performance of the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.
The ICE BofAML Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Index is a subset of The BofA Merrill Lynch World Sovereign Bond Index excluding all securities with a country of risk that is a member of the FX G10, all Western European countries, and territories of the U.S. and Western European countries. The FX G10 includes all Euro members, the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden.
The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index, which measures global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers.
The S&P Global Developed Sovereign Bond index includes local-currency denominated debt publicly issued by governments in their domestic markets.
S&P Eurozone Developed Sovereign Bond - seeks to measure the performance of Eurozone government bonds.
The S&P Pan-Europe Developed Sovereign Bond Index is a comprehensive, market-value-weighted index designed to track the performance of local currency-denominated securities publicly issued by Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the U.K. and developed countries in the Eurozone for their domestic markets.
ICE BofAML Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond - tracks the performance of US dollar (USD) and Euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued within the major domestic and Eurobond markets.
The Bloomberg Barclay’s US Corporate Bond Index (AA), which measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers.
The Bloomberg Barclay’s US Corporate High Yield Index, which covers the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market.
Bloomberg Barclay’s Global Aggregate Securitized- US Mortgage-Backed Securities, which is a component of the Bloomberg Barclay’s US Aggregate Index and measures investment grade mortgage backed pass-through securities of GNMA, FNMA, and FHLMC.
Bloomberg Barclay’s Global Aggregate Securitized- US Asset-Backed Securities, which is a component of the Bloomberg Barclay’s US Aggregate Index and includes the pass-throughs, bullets, and controlled amortization structures of only the senior class of ABS issues.
The Blomberg Barclay’s US Floating Rate Notes (<5 Yr) Index, measures the performance of U.S dollar-dominated, investment grade floating rate notes with maturities less than 5 years.
The Bloomberg Barclay’s Municipal Bond Index, which measures investment grade, tax-exempt bonds with a maturity of at least one year.
The S&P/ LSTA Leveraged Loan Index is designed to reflect the performance of the largest facilities in the leveraged loan market.

An index is a portfolio of specific securities, the performance of which is often used as a benchmark in judging the relative performance to certain asset classes. Index performance used throughout is intended to illustrate historical market trends and performance. Indexes are managed and do not incur investment management fees. An investor is unable to invest in an index. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. All investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal, and potential liquidity of the investment in a falling market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Key Rates

Key Rates are shown for US Treasuries and London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), the interest rate at which banks offer to lend funds (wholesale money) to one another in the international interbank market. LIBOR is a key benchmark rate that reflects how much it costs banks to borrow from each other. “Current” refers to the percentage rate as of 6/30/2018, while the rates of change are stated in basis points.

Credit Spreads

Credit Spreads shown comprise the Option-Adjusted Spread of the indices indicated, versus the US 10-Year Treasury Yield. “Current” refers to the spread as of 6/30/2018, while the rates of change are stated in basis points.

Key Indicators

Key Indicators correspond to various macro-economic and rate-related data points that we consider impactful to fixed income markets.

2s10s (bps)/ 10 Yr vs 2 Yr Treasury Spread, which measures the difference between yields on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities and 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities.
West Texas Intermediate, which is an oil benchmark and the underlying asset in the New York Mercantile Exchange’s oil futures contract.
Core Consumer Price Index, which measures the consumer price index excluding food and energy prices. Shown as of the prior month-end.
Breakeven Inflation: 5 Yr %/ bps, which uses a moving 30-day average of the 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities and 5-Year Treasury Inflation–Indexed Constant Maturity Securities to derive expected inflation.
Breakeven Inflation: 10 Yr %/ bps, which uses a moving 30-day average of the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities and 10-Year Treasury Inflation–Indexed Constant Maturity Securities to derive expected inflation.

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